Opportunity for Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions from Pre-Formation to Ending Stage: Eastern North Pacific 2021 Season

Building on previous studies of western North Pacific formation and intensity predictions along the ECMWF ensemble medium-range track forecasts, first objective this transition to eastern was provide earlier forecasts Time-to-Formation (T2F) Time-to-Hurricane (T2H) than are available from National Hurricane Center Advisories. For six hurricanes 2021 season, detections in were 8 days 12 advance T2F times 9 13 T2H times. The major study has been document that is also capable predicting Ending-T2H Ending-T2F timings positions those 15-day forecasts. This for time documents opportunity high wind warnings during entire lifecycle season even formation. Validations pre-hurricane Ending-hurricane tracks provided lifecycles seven “Almost-Hurricane Guillermo”. Because technique accepted operational testing at Joint Typhoon Warning Center, a companion article submitted will describe flowchart methodology evaluating twice-daily select most likely circulation as early possible while non-selecting false alarm circulations.